We’ve just released a new independent analysis of The Metals Company’s deep-sea mining plans, and the findings are clear:
On its own numbers, this project makes no meaningful profit and then collapses.
The report, authored by mining analyst Dr. Steven H. Emmerman, assesses TMC’s pre-feasibility study against recognised mining and financial disclosure standards.
What it finds is deeply concerning.
Based on the company’s own modelling, the project would:
- Exhaust its mineral reserves in around eight years
- Generate no meaningful profit
- Rely on assumptions that go beyond what is economically viable
As Dr. Emmerman puts it:
“Based on the company’s own modelling, the project would exhaust its mineral reserves within eight years, and generate no profit. The economic case depends on assumptions that go beyond what regulators consider economically viable.”
The report also identifies a series of structural issues underpinning the project:
- The economic model relies on best-case assumptions — including high metal prices, optimistic recovery rates, no royalties, and limited allowance for closure costs
- Over 28% of projected revenue depends on a product and market that do not currently exist at scale
- The analysis relies on mineral resources that regulators do not accept as economically viable
- The study claims “zero waste” without a credible plan
- Much of the study appears to have been prepared internally by the company itself
Taken together, the conclusion is straightforward:
Deep sea mining is a bad investment.
Deep-sea mining is being promoted as the next frontier for critical minerals.
But this analysis shows that even under its own assumptions, the flagship commercial project in this space does not stack up economically.
As always, thank you for your support.
Photo by rc.xyz NFT gallery on Unsplash
The post TMC Own Analysis Shows Their Project “cannot be profitable” appeared first on Deep Sea Defenders.
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